Jack Cust is on the cusp of history. After setting the AL record for strikeouts in a season, eclipsing the immortal Rob Deer. Cust is a legendary minor league slugger with 200 career minor league homers.
He also has 101 walks to go with those 188 strikeouts. In only 563 plate appearances!
The current leader in SO + BB for a season is Mark McGwire, with 317 (162 BB, 155 K) in 1998.
Mark McGwire 317 (162 BB, 155 K, 1998) 681 PA
Ryan Howard 306 (107 BB, 199 K, 2007) 648 PA
Adam Dunn 306 (112 BB, 194 K, 2006) 683 PA
Adam Dunn 303 (108 BB, 195 K, 2004) 681 PA
Adam Dunn 298 (128 BB, 170 K, 2002) 676 PA
Jim Thome 298 (127 BB, 171 K, 1999) 629 PA
Jim Thome 296 (111 BB, 185 K, 2001) 644 PA
Jay Buhner 294 (119 BB, 175 K, 1997) 655 PA
Jim Thome 293 (111 BB, 182 K, 2003) 698 PA
Jimmy Wynn 290 (148 BB, 142 K, 1969) 653 PA
Jack Cust 289 (101 BB, 188 K, 2008) 563 PA
Adam Dunn appears on this list several times... and he too is in line for a milestone this season. He is currently at 38 homers for the season. If he hits two more, he will have his fourth straight season with exactly 40 homers. Earlier research has uncovered the fact that the highest total of homers hit four straight seasons is 24, done by Ken Boyer from 1961-64. Fred Lynn hit 23 each year from 1984-87.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Worst 2000 strikeout pitcher ever?
Last week, White Sox pitcher Javier Vazquez became the 62nd member of the 2000 strikeout club (Andy Pettitte, barring a freak injury, will become the 63rd in his next start). I thought to myself, "Could Javier Vazquez possibly be the worst 2000 strikeout pitcher in history?" Of course, I had to take action and dig through the rubble to annoint someone as the worst 2000 strikeout pitcher in history.
Javier Vazquez, among all pitchers to amass 2000 strikeouts, has the highest career ERA (4.28), and, as we know, pitchers (ones not named Roger Clemens, at least) experience decline in the later years of their career. That being said, we have Javier Vazquez, who at age 32, is likely in his prime.
I took three quality pitchers from three different time periods and saw where they stood through age 32, and compared them to the end of career totals.
Eddie Plank: 2.19 through 32, 2.35 through end of career.
Bob Gibson: 2.72 through 32, 3.01 through end of career.
Kevin Brown: 3.01 through 32, 3.28 though end of career.
I could have done extensive research with many more samples, but I don't have the time, and this demonstrates my point enough. Basically, you can say Vazquez will probably end his career in the 4.45-4.60 range. Only two other 2000 strikeout pitchers have a 4+ ERA; David Wells, and Jamie Moyer, and both of these guys have 230+ wins, a much better winning percentage, and 20 win seasons under their belts.
Javier Vazquez is currently a .500 career pitcher. And, looking at his year to year win/loss totals, he has been a detriment to his team when in contention. His best seasons were ones that he spent on a lowly Expo team, and the one season the White Sox were out of it early on (2001: 16-11 for 68-94 Expos, 2007: 15-8 for 72-90 White Sox). When he was on a contender (or one of the 83-79 Expo teams in '02 and '03, where a standout performance may have been good enough to put them over the hump), he couldn't produce. Only 14-11(.583) with a 101-61 (.623) Yankee team in 2004, and on strong White Sox teams in 2006 (90-72, .556) and 2008 (84-68, .553), Vazquez posted sub-.500 seasons in each (11-12 in '06; 12-14 in '08 thus far).
Vazquez nibbles around guys who hit around .200 and tries to throw breaking stuff to guys to put them away instead of going with his best pitch. He posts gaudy strikeout numbers, but in between those punchouts, he gives up a lot of home runs (never fewer than 23 in a season in which he made 30+ starts) and while he doesn't walk a lot of guys nor gives up a lot of hits, he gives them up at bad times.
Vazquez will probably make 3000 strikeouts for his career, at which point I will have to reevaluate this ranking, but until then, Vazquez: worst 2000 strikeout pitcher ever.
I narrowed the list of finalists for worst 2000 strikeout pitcher down to eleven: Frank Tanana, Chuck Finley, Jerry Koosman, Charlie Hough, Tommy John, Camilo Pascual, Dennis Martinez, Bobo Newsom, Rick Reuschel, Andy Benes, and Javier Vazquez.
All of the above pitchers have multiple All-Star appearances except Benes, Vazquez, and Hough, easily the bottom three on the list; Vazquez, Pascual, and Hough (and Newsom, who played before the Cy Young Award was established) never made a top 10 in Cy Young voting. Tommy John never broke 150 K's; He, Martinez, Benes, and Reuschel never made 200. Vazquez and Martinez (who did it twice) topped out at 16 wins in a season. Newsom was sub .500 for his career, but he did have three twenty win seasons, and made four all-star games. Plus he was constantly traded, and played with several abysmal Browns clubs. Hough and Vazquez are at an even .500.
Benes has a strikeout crown in 1994 going for him and two top ten finishes in Cy Young voting. Hough has a decent 3.75 ERA (over a full half run better than Vazquez), and a stellar 7.77 H/9 IP rate (60th all time) compared with Vazquez's 8.97. I have to go with Vazquez as the worst.
Javier Vazquez, among all pitchers to amass 2000 strikeouts, has the highest career ERA (4.28), and, as we know, pitchers (ones not named Roger Clemens, at least) experience decline in the later years of their career. That being said, we have Javier Vazquez, who at age 32, is likely in his prime.
I took three quality pitchers from three different time periods and saw where they stood through age 32, and compared them to the end of career totals.
Eddie Plank: 2.19 through 32, 2.35 through end of career.
Bob Gibson: 2.72 through 32, 3.01 through end of career.
Kevin Brown: 3.01 through 32, 3.28 though end of career.
I could have done extensive research with many more samples, but I don't have the time, and this demonstrates my point enough. Basically, you can say Vazquez will probably end his career in the 4.45-4.60 range. Only two other 2000 strikeout pitchers have a 4+ ERA; David Wells, and Jamie Moyer, and both of these guys have 230+ wins, a much better winning percentage, and 20 win seasons under their belts.
Javier Vazquez is currently a .500 career pitcher. And, looking at his year to year win/loss totals, he has been a detriment to his team when in contention. His best seasons were ones that he spent on a lowly Expo team, and the one season the White Sox were out of it early on (2001: 16-11 for 68-94 Expos, 2007: 15-8 for 72-90 White Sox). When he was on a contender (or one of the 83-79 Expo teams in '02 and '03, where a standout performance may have been good enough to put them over the hump), he couldn't produce. Only 14-11(.583) with a 101-61 (.623) Yankee team in 2004, and on strong White Sox teams in 2006 (90-72, .556) and 2008 (84-68, .553), Vazquez posted sub-.500 seasons in each (11-12 in '06; 12-14 in '08 thus far).
Vazquez nibbles around guys who hit around .200 and tries to throw breaking stuff to guys to put them away instead of going with his best pitch. He posts gaudy strikeout numbers, but in between those punchouts, he gives up a lot of home runs (never fewer than 23 in a season in which he made 30+ starts) and while he doesn't walk a lot of guys nor gives up a lot of hits, he gives them up at bad times.
Vazquez will probably make 3000 strikeouts for his career, at which point I will have to reevaluate this ranking, but until then, Vazquez: worst 2000 strikeout pitcher ever.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Relax, Frankie...
Yesterday, Francisco Rodriguez tied the Major League record for saves in a season with 57. I've gone on forever about how unimportant the save statistic is, and furthermore, I've explained how misused the closer role is.
Well, Francisco Rodriguez broke the save record with a barrel of one inning saves. Not one of these 57 saves were over an inning. Four were one-out saves, two were two-out saves. The average amount of outs required for these 57 saves was 2.8947. He averaged less than a full inning per save.
I would say without hesitation that Rodriguez isn't even the best closer in his league THIS YEAR. Among guys with at least five saves, Rodriguez ranks 9th in the AL in ERA. Joe Nathan, who IS the best closer in the American League, has an ERA of less than HALF of Rodriguez, a 1.03 mark. From that same five or more save group, NOBODY has given up more walks than Francisco's 31, roughly a walk every two innings, a very high mark.
Compare Rodriguez with Bobby Thigpen's 57 save season in 1990. Thigpen had a better ERA (1.83 to 2.42), a better WHIP (1.038 to 1.263), and way more innings pitched (88.2 to 63.1).
It's also interesting to take a look at this outs per save statistic I put together.
Compare Rodriguez (2.8947) to Thigpen (3.2982). Then compare Thigpen to Righetti in 1986(4.5435), who held the record before Thigpen. Then compare Righetti to Dan Quisenberry in 1983(5.8000), who held the record before Righetti. We've certainly come a long way in a quarter century. Quisenberry had ELEVEN (11!) three inning saves in that season.
So, before you jump up and down like a jackass (which you did last night after recording your majestic three outs against the pitiful Seattle Mariners with a three run lead), think about how little work you've done to get your record compared to the players of the past.
If anything, I relish any opportunity to discuss how great Dan Quisenberry was. A man with several fine quotes, such as,
"I've seen the future and it's much like the present, only longer." and
"I found a delivery in my flaw."
Well, Francisco Rodriguez broke the save record with a barrel of one inning saves. Not one of these 57 saves were over an inning. Four were one-out saves, two were two-out saves. The average amount of outs required for these 57 saves was 2.8947. He averaged less than a full inning per save.
I would say without hesitation that Rodriguez isn't even the best closer in his league THIS YEAR. Among guys with at least five saves, Rodriguez ranks 9th in the AL in ERA. Joe Nathan, who IS the best closer in the American League, has an ERA of less than HALF of Rodriguez, a 1.03 mark. From that same five or more save group, NOBODY has given up more walks than Francisco's 31, roughly a walk every two innings, a very high mark.
Compare Rodriguez with Bobby Thigpen's 57 save season in 1990. Thigpen had a better ERA (1.83 to 2.42), a better WHIP (1.038 to 1.263), and way more innings pitched (88.2 to 63.1).
It's also interesting to take a look at this outs per save statistic I put together.
Compare Rodriguez (2.8947) to Thigpen (3.2982). Then compare Thigpen to Righetti in 1986(4.5435), who held the record before Thigpen. Then compare Righetti to Dan Quisenberry in 1983(5.8000), who held the record before Righetti. We've certainly come a long way in a quarter century. Quisenberry had ELEVEN (11!) three inning saves in that season.
So, before you jump up and down like a jackass (which you did last night after recording your majestic three outs against the pitiful Seattle Mariners with a three run lead), think about how little work you've done to get your record compared to the players of the past.
If anything, I relish any opportunity to discuss how great Dan Quisenberry was. A man with several fine quotes, such as,
"I've seen the future and it's much like the present, only longer." and
"I found a delivery in my flaw."
Monday, September 8, 2008
September eighth, two thousand eight
Today is the 54th birthday of Don Aase, who is fourth alphabetically all time on the Major League Baseball all time roster. He was third during his playing career, but he (and the brothers Aaron) were both bumped by David Aaaaaaaaaaaardsma (or Aardsma for people who are anti pirate). I wonder if the extra A was an add-on to give him alphabetical dominance over all other MLB players. Much like Chad Ocho Cinco was a change to give the wide receiver dominance over all other jackasses who can't seem to get enough attention.
But this is a baseball blog, so that's enough about him.
Don Aase shall go along with Mel Queen (both of them; as well as Billy Queen), Ray King (and 17 other MLB kings) , and several hundred guys named Jack to complete the all-time playing cards team.
More interesting posts to come in the next few days. I promise.
But this is a baseball blog, so that's enough about him.
Don Aase shall go along with Mel Queen (both of them; as well as Billy Queen), Ray King (and 17 other MLB kings) , and several hundred guys named Jack to complete the all-time playing cards team.
More interesting posts to come in the next few days. I promise.
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