Thursday, April 30, 2009

350 Runs that never were...

The record for most double plays grounded into is 350 in a career. And it was Cal Ripken's career. That's 700 outs in 350 swings. In each double play grounder, Ripken is an out, but another runner is erased. Of all 350 of Ripken's double plays, here are the most victimized baserunners:

33 Rafael Palmeiro
25 Lee Lacy
21 Brady Anderson
19 Jim Dwyer
18 Harold Baines
18 Bobby Bonilla
17 Mike Devereaux
14 Dan Ford
14 Joe Orsulak
12 Jeff Conine
11 Eddie Murray
11 Fred Lynn

Ripken also drove in 13 runs on double plays (which he collected a total of 0 RBI on)

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Earned Runs and Strikeouts

Despite the fact that I posted about the White Sox' lousy game, I spent yesterday afternoon at Wrigley Field watching the Cubs and Rockies. Rich Harden was supposed to make the Rockies look like midgets grasping for stuff on the top shelf, and the Cubs were supposed to make Jason Marquis look like a cow trying to lick its own behind.

But things didn't work like that. Harden struck out eight in three innings while giving up ample walks and runs, and the Rockies ended up taking it 5-2. Marquis gave up only one run in seven innings.

Maybe I was getting a little ahead of myself, but I wondered what the record of strikeouts was when a pitcher gave up 10 earned runs in a game.

And that would be (at least since 1954) 9 strikeouts by Mike Norris on a September 26,1980 game against the Brewers. He gave up 10 runs on 17 hits... yet he had a 7-5 lead going into the top of the ninth until Ben Ogilvie's inside the park grand slam followed by Gorman Thomas' solo shot. The game would end 10-7. It was during a fantastic 22-9 season for Norris, where he finished second to Steve Stone in the Cy Young voting and snagged a Gold Glove. He completed 24 games, of the A's incredible team total of 94 complete games, as Billy Martin rode the arms of five different pitchers to double digit complete games. Rick Langford completed 28 games, Norris added his 24, and even Brian Kingman, with his 8-20 record, completed 10. Matt Keough (20) and Steve McCatty (11) rounded out the five.

Next, I wondered what the highest number of earned runs allowed were for a 10+ strikeout performance. It is 9. Done May 22,2003 by the Reds' Ryan Dempster, who struck out 10 Braves while giving up those nine runs.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Disaster in the Motor City

Today was another dismal performance by the White Sox. On the heels of a ten run outburst against Detroit on Monday, they put up a pathetic four hits and not a single run. It seems as if this always happens. Too many times, they bombard a pitcher one day only to come back with a truly feeble effort the next time out. And I refuse to believe, as the broadcasters want you to, that they were just overmatched by the opposing pitcher. I don't believe the mound mastery of Armando Galarraga, who spent eight years in the minors only to accomplish a meager 27-35 record with an above 4 ERA, was the sole reason why the Sox were held to basically nothing today.

During Ozzie's tenure as White Sox manager, the Sox have scored 10+ runs in a game 77 times, with a 70-7 record in those games. The Sox are 40-37 in the next games. If you subtract last season's 14-4 mark, you get 26-33. Six times, they were shut out the next game after scoring ten. Six times they only scored one. Nine times they scored only two. That's 21 of 77 games that they score 0,1,or 2 runs after scoring 10 the game before.

Is it lack of focus? Is it that they're lazy after scoring a bunch, thinking that the next game should be just as easy? Is it that their style of play is too dependent on the longball that if they don't get them in bunches, they don't get anything? Very frustrating.

I personally think the way to become more offensively consistent, it's important to 1.) keep a level swing. 2.) shorten up with two strikes 3.) always take a base when it's given to you (for example, never ever hit right into a shift when you can drop a bunt and jog to first) and 4.) if you're just overpowered, throw off the pitcher's rhythm by taking extra time, and bunting to keep his mind off simply blowing you away.

I think that much too often, the ego of the slugger who is concerned with his image and statistics gets in the way of success. Teams often forget about strategy and the fact that pitchers need rhythm in order to excel. And it is the duty of the hitting coach to get the players prepared for each pitcher.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Lefty Win Leaders Among Franchises

Diamondbacks: Randy Johnson - 118
Braves: Warren Spahn - 356
Rockies: Jeff Francis - 51
Marlins: Dontrelle Willis - 68
Astros: Bob Knepper - 93
Mets: Jerry Koosman - 140
Padres: Randy Jones - 92
Expos: Jeff Fassero - 58
Cubs: Hippo Vaughn - 151
Reds: Eppa Rixey - 179
Dodgers: Sandy Koufax - 165 (156 in LA)
Phillies: Steve Carlton - 241
Pirates: Wilbur Cooper - 202
Cardinals: Bill Sherdel - 153
Giants: Carl Hubbell - 253

Royals: Paul Splittorff - 166
Angels: Chuck Finley - 165
Mariners: Jamie Moyer - 145
Rangers: Kenny Rogers - 133
Blue Jays: Jimmy Key - 116
Brewers: Mike Caldwell - 102
Devil Rays: Scott Kazmir - 47
Red Sox: Mel Parnell - 123
Orioles: Dave McNally - 181
White Sox: Billy Pierce - 186
Indians: Sam McDowell - 122
Tigers: Mickey Lolich - 207
Twins: Jim Kaat - 190 (189 as a Twin, 1 as a Senator)
Yankees: Whitey Ford - 236
A's: Eddie Plank - 284 (Vida Blue most as an Oakland A: 124)

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Mariano the Great

Yesterday, I argued with one of the Comcast newsroom guys over whether or not Mariano Rivera was the greatest closer ever.

I cited the fact that Rivera has the best ERA+ of all time. I had to explain that ERA+ is more than just ERA adjusted to park factor. ERA+ also weighs against league average, which is extremely important.

The best career ERA adjusted to park and league average is Mariano Rivera. That is a powerful statement. For some reason, it didn't impress the guy.

So, I dug deeper. But before I go on, I want to restate the fact that Rivera's ERA, when put into context of era and park, is BETTER THAN ANYBODY WHO EVER PLAYED THE GAME. Yes, his 1023.7 Innings pitched just nip past the 1000 inning minimum for career pitching rate stats, but that 199 ERA+ is TWENTY-NINE percent better than the next guy, who happens to be Pedro Martinez, another pitcher whose phenomenal stats when read between the lines are so much better than he gets credit for...

But this isn't another Pedro Martinez for Hall of Fame campaign, this is a Mariano Rivera for greatest closer ever campaign. Actually, not campaign, I'm simply saying it. He IS the best closer ever. And it's really not that close.

Rivera has twelve full seasons as Yankees closer. Eight of them (8; 75 percent of his seasons as Yankee closer) are sub 2.00 ERA. Five of those twelve seasons featured a WHIP under 1.000. Three of them were under 0.900. 2008, at the robust age of 38, he posted a 0.665 WHIP. Since 1900, of all pitchers who made 64+ appearances in a season, the fewest walks issued were Rivera's six just this past season.

Obviously, Rivera is not prone to blowing saves. His 0.889 conversion ratio (career saves/saves + blown saves) ranks among the best ever. Trevor Hoffman nips Rivera with 0.892 and Joe Nathan is a tiny bit better yet with 0.893. But Rivera's body of work dwarfs Nathan's and Rivera's ERA and WHIP are clearly more impressive than Hoffman (144 ERA+, 1.049 WHIP to Rivera's 199 ERA+ and 1.020 WHIP)

Another complaint I heard about Rivera was the lack of big save seasons by Rivera. It's a weak argument. Yes, Hoffman has more 40-save seasons than does Rivera (9-6), but Hoffman has had more chances. I tested a few samples to give an idea as to the decisively fewer save chances Mariano Rivera gets on a yearly basis.

San Diego Padres: 1996-2008: A total of 557 games decided by 5+ runs (42.8 per season)
Hoffman's team. Now 5+ run differences means no save opportunities. See where I'm going? Ok, how about an American League example:
Los Angeles Angels: 1996-2008: A total of 580 games decided by 5+ runs (44.6 per season)
How about the K-Rod era specifically: 2004-08: 43.8 per season.
I ran a few examples of other save collecting monsters.
Lee Smith's Cubs 1982-87: They averaged 37.3 games per season decided by 5+ runs
And Dennis Eckersley's A's 1987-93: 42.3 per year over that stretch.

Now Mariano Rivera. From 1996-2008, the Yankees have averaged 52.9 games per season in which the game was decided by 5+ runs. How many more saves would Rivera have had his offenses not blown opponents out on a daily basis (or for that matter, how many more saves would Rivera had if the Yanks hadn't turned the starting rotation over to the Phil Hugheses and the Ian Kennedys and Kei Igawas... or the Jeff Weavers, Jose Contrerases, and Javier Vazquezes when they were bad on the Yanks, with opponents teeing off on them)?

...And as much as I hate using postseason excellence as an argument for career value...

read carefully

117.1 innings pitched. 34 saves. 0.77 ERA. 0.75 WHIP

If Papelbon turns in eight more seasons like the three he's had, then we'll reconsider, but until then... Mariano Rivera is the best there has ever been.