Mariano the Great

Yesterday, I argued with one of the Comcast newsroom guys over whether or not Mariano Rivera was the greatest closer ever.

I cited the fact that Rivera has the best ERA+ of all time. I had to explain that ERA+ is more than just ERA adjusted to park factor. ERA+ also weighs against league average, which is extremely important.

The best career ERA adjusted to park and league average is Mariano Rivera. That is a powerful statement. For some reason, it didn't impress the guy.

So, I dug deeper. But before I go on, I want to restate the fact that Rivera's ERA, when put into context of era and park, is BETTER THAN ANYBODY WHO EVER PLAYED THE GAME. Yes, his 1023.7 Innings pitched just nip past the 1000 inning minimum for career pitching rate stats, but that 199 ERA+ is TWENTY-NINE percent better than the next guy, who happens to be Pedro Martinez, another pitcher whose phenomenal stats when read between the lines are so much better than he gets credit for...

But this isn't another Pedro Martinez for Hall of Fame campaign, this is a Mariano Rivera for greatest closer ever campaign. Actually, not campaign, I'm simply saying it. He IS the best closer ever. And it's really not that close.

Rivera has twelve full seasons as Yankees closer. Eight of them (8; 75 percent of his seasons as Yankee closer) are sub 2.00 ERA. Five of those twelve seasons featured a WHIP under 1.000. Three of them were under 0.900. 2008, at the robust age of 38, he posted a 0.665 WHIP. Since 1900, of all pitchers who made 64+ appearances in a season, the fewest walks issued were Rivera's six just this past season.

Obviously, Rivera is not prone to blowing saves. His 0.889 conversion ratio (career saves/saves + blown saves) ranks among the best ever. Trevor Hoffman nips Rivera with 0.892 and Joe Nathan is a tiny bit better yet with 0.893. But Rivera's body of work dwarfs Nathan's and Rivera's ERA and WHIP are clearly more impressive than Hoffman (144 ERA+, 1.049 WHIP to Rivera's 199 ERA+ and 1.020 WHIP)

Another complaint I heard about Rivera was the lack of big save seasons by Rivera. It's a weak argument. Yes, Hoffman has more 40-save seasons than does Rivera (9-6), but Hoffman has had more chances. I tested a few samples to give an idea as to the decisively fewer save chances Mariano Rivera gets on a yearly basis.

San Diego Padres: 1996-2008: A total of 557 games decided by 5+ runs (42.8 per season)
Hoffman's team. Now 5+ run differences means no save opportunities. See where I'm going? Ok, how about an American League example:
Los Angeles Angels: 1996-2008: A total of 580 games decided by 5+ runs (44.6 per season)
How about the K-Rod era specifically: 2004-08: 43.8 per season.
I ran a few examples of other save collecting monsters.
Lee Smith's Cubs 1982-87: They averaged 37.3 games per season decided by 5+ runs
And Dennis Eckersley's A's 1987-93: 42.3 per year over that stretch.

Now Mariano Rivera. From 1996-2008, the Yankees have averaged 52.9 games per season in which the game was decided by 5+ runs. How many more saves would Rivera have had his offenses not blown opponents out on a daily basis (or for that matter, how many more saves would Rivera had if the Yanks hadn't turned the starting rotation over to the Phil Hugheses and the Ian Kennedys and Kei Igawas... or the Jeff Weavers, Jose Contrerases, and Javier Vazquezes when they were bad on the Yanks, with opponents teeing off on them)?

...And as much as I hate using postseason excellence as an argument for career value...

read carefully

117.1 innings pitched. 34 saves. 0.77 ERA. 0.75 WHIP

If Papelbon turns in eight more seasons like the three he's had, then we'll reconsider, but until then... Mariano Rivera is the best there has ever been.